Well, game 3 is in the books, and I wish I could say I had a lot of hands to write about but I was knocked out short of another win...I was 3rd one out this time... I was following a pattern of previous games, though where I get a little low and then jump back up. This time my hand didn't hold up, but I think I'm okay with how it happened. There were only 2 or 3 hands total that might be interesting to write about.
I'm up a few thousand early on and then I open with Q-10offsuit in the hijack, with Shae and Sean as the blinds. Sean is a rock of a player and Shae will probably call raises a little too often, especially if she's already invested. So I figured I would be playing a flop against Shae with Sean folding. This was the exact opposite with Shae folding and Sean saying "I guess I'll call..." Anyone who sees Sean play for at least 1 tournament knows that he'll only play 1 or 2 hands an hour and that's only if he gets dealt Aces or Kings. I've only seen him call with hands like Qs, Js, AK.(Though one time I saw him "open up" his game and 4 or 5bet shove with AK, lost to Dejo's Aces) I'm saying this guy probably folds 10s to a preflop raise... The only thing against me is that I hadn't yet played with Sean this season and maybe I forgot how insanely rocky he really is or maybe I figured one day he'll change up his game since we all know him to be a true diamond... Him calling at least I can figure him for something less than Aces-Kings but what I have no idea... Flop comes out as Q-J-9 I don't remember if it was suited. Sean immediately bet out 1K(I think we were at 25-50 where my preflop raise was probably around 175-200 so the 1K bet was over-the-pot large.) I know this about Sean, that he'll bet his monsters and fold anything less. I've since relearned that he'll probably NEVER bluff and I've only seen him open his game up to mid-Kings at top 3. Based on him betting at all I figured his hand is now strong enough to call a shove if my open ender hits, but I'm really confused with what he could possibly have. So while I figure he'll either raise me with the nuts and fold with just about anything less I have no idea what he'd call preflop with that he'd now be betting the flop...so maybe out of pure confusion I called. Turn was a brick and he bets out 2K. I should've folded at this point because even the first call was probably no good even given some implied odds against what I might give Sean's range... I think I was just still confused with what Sean would only call with preflop that he's now betting postflop and I was too busy licking my chops hoping to hit the open ender. I really only could see 9s (10s, maybe?)being a hand he'd only now be betting unless what I was hoping was that he'd actually opened his game up a little. I compounded mistake after mistake by calling his river bet and seeing him flip over K-10 in what's probably my most expensive "of course!" lesson of me being stupid in a long time...I also was victim of a flopped flush later when I actually flopped a decent part of the flop...
I played a few other hands that I thought were just about monsters until Sean called and even 3-bet me a few times(Aces/Kings), which isn't going to bode well for my tournament life. I was up and down a little bit here and there and then after a flopped flush hurt me, this hand happened:
Blinds of 200-400, 25 ante were nearing their end, next is 300-600, 50 ante I think. I had 4800 total and was looking for a few good hands to 3-bet shove. I'm in the hijack position(right of the button) with Ad-8d, which is probably my least favorite hand, however I'm fairly certain Shae is going to call a lot of the time I raise with just about anything and Sean will most likely fold almost everything(I'm adding K-10 to his range of calling hands that only includes K-10). I guess in this game I could've probably raised and folded a bad flop (or maybe even shoved any flop and won a lot of the time), however, the blinds going up shortly I couldn't figure I'd have a better situation to steal the blinds and antes and have a back-up type hand in case I get called. Jon to my left folds and Shae in the SB ponders a call, even showing her hand to Jon kind of pleading to him that a call is ok(not really a fan of that move though he tried not to help her out...). I was actually hoping she'd fold at this point, thinking she was pondering something like an A-10/A-J type hand at worst. I thought interesting was the way she made her decision to call was by counting out a call with her big chips and realizing it was a lot of her stack(just about half her stack if not slightly more) and then resizing the call to use more of the lower denomination chips. I think this is so she can in her head "think" that it's less than it actually is... So after resizing her chips to a mix of large and small chips she makes the call, Sean folds(said he had AJ, not sure if he'd have called if Shae hadn't) and she flips over what I'll probably call the Sylvia for a while now: QsJs... I felt bad afterwards but I actually said something like "What...? You thought that long with that...?" I guess I was just confused because I thought the ponder and then the call meant I was really behind and to be ahead was a surprise... Dejo told me later he might make that call and reminded me of when I knocked out Jaime with QJ suited. I told him it was a completely different situation but he also told me that my range is really wide in these spots so while I agree, I'm not sure it's that wide... :-) 1st card on the flop was an 8, which, even though made no difference(I was still ahead) it felt pretty good, until I realized the rest of the flop was 9 and 10, no diamonds...bleh... Nothing of consequence came on the turn/river and I was out... This was the 3rd flopped straight up to that point at our table and the 2nd one I was going to be a victim of...What Chris told me got me curious, so I'm going to analyze this with Poker Stove and try to determine what my range has to be to make the call good. The pot was 4800+200+400+200=5600 and Shae had to call 4400 to win 5600 roughly 1.3 to 1 so QJsuited has to be something like 45% or better against my shoving hand range. It actually might be closer to a call than I originally thought at the time, however, I still don't think it IS a call. I'll try to get a better analysis.
Good news, if there is any, about me going out early is that I believe everyone else with high values for points went out earlier than usual and the top 4 players were Terri, Sean, Chris and Shae, in that order. Yes, Shae ended up winning. If it weren't for the most fun I've had playing a no-money ridiculous dealer's choice poker game that started up with the losers I'd have a better idea of how it happened. Chris, with 6 players left had just about half the chips in play(near 50K) and I don't think he let up, but he also doesn't push his stack around, either. At heads up I noticed Shae had bridged the gap to close to even at some point and both players had 4-5 KOs each. Chris told me the deciding hand was an A-7-9 flop where he had 7-9 vs Shae's A-7/9 and the chips went into the middle after the flop, crippling him. Great job to Shae! She wasn't sure if this was her first win, I think it was her 2nd. Whether or not I think her QJ call was the right one, she must have otherwise made some good plays after that to get herself the win and all of those knockout chips. I'll post up the results after 3 when Chris sends the results out to me.
Also, Chris and I have a "most wins" bet and prior to this game I pretty much chalked myself into winning that bet until I saw his stack at final 6. I did get a little concerned but thanks to Shae and an A-7 I'm pretty confident I'll be making up call/raise/fold terms for him at the finale!
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